Demographers

population estimates and under-registration

5 problems need demographers

1. 01
   How many people lived in the Americas in 1492?

   Fit province-level depopulation curves from tribute and visita counts, keeping the tributary-to-population conversion as an explicit, adjustable parameter with stated uncertainty.

   Demography · Americas · 1492–1650also needs archaeologists, geneticists and data scientists
2. 02
   How many people lived in China around 1600, and how many died between 1620 and 1680?

   Specify alternative under-registration models, such as ding-to-mouth ratios or comparison with 1680s Qing registration, and apply each consistently across counties.

   Demography · East Asia · 1580–1680also needs data scientists and GIS specialists
3. 03
   How many Indigenous people were enslaved in the Americas between 1492 and 1900?

   Use the overlap between record types in the regional pilots to estimate how many enslaved people each series misses, and state testable multipliers for under-recording.

   Demography · Americas · 1492–1900also needs archivists
4. 04
   Did the population of Ottoman Anatolia collapse in the late sixteenth and seventeenth centuries?

   Estimate conversion ranges between avarızhane and households where tahrir and avarız registers overlap for a district, and build regional population series from 1520 to 1700 with uncertainty.

   Demography · Middle East · 1520–1700also needs archivists and GIS specialists
5. 05
   How large was the Roman citizen population in the late Republic and under Augustus?

   Make explicit the demographic assumptions behind the low, middle and high readings and convert each into predicted rural site and urban densities for specific surveyed regions.

   Demography · Mediterranean · 115 BCE–14 CEalso needs archaeologists

Drafted by Claude Opus 5.5