Epidemiologists

disease transmission and mortality

4 problems need epidemiologists

1. 01
   Did the Black Death reach sub-Saharan Africa in the fourteenth century?

   State what mortality and settlement patterns plague would produce in the forest zone and the Horn, as distinct from drought or war, for testing against the site register.

   Disease · Africa · 1340–1500also needs geneticists and archaeologists
2. 02
   What caused the cocoliztli epidemics of 1545 and 1576 in New Spain?

   State what the drought-and-rodent, colonial-disruption and contagion-along-routes models predict for the timing, geography and victims of mortality, and test them against the documentary atlas.

   Disease · Americas · 1545–1581also needs geneticists and geoscientists
3. 03
   How many people did the Justinianic Plague kill, and did it change late antique society?

   Test, following White (2020), whether the mortality and duration reported for each city are internally plausible under epidemic models, and state which source claims fail.

   Disease · Mediterranean · 541–750also needs geneticists and archaeologists
4. 04
   Why did plague disappear from western Europe after the early eighteenth century?

   Fit a spatially explicit model to dated outbreaks and health office records of arrivals and quarantines, and test whether quarantine stringency or exposure explains which ports escaped introduction.

   Disease · Europe · 1650–1850also needs geneticists and archivists

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