Open Problems in History
  1. 1
    Does Proto-Elamite record language, and is it the ancestor of Linear Elamite?

    Iran's earliest script survives on about 1,600–1,700 accounting tablets; its numbers are read, but whether its other signs write words, and how it relates to Linear Elamite, is disputed.

    Languages & scripts · Middle East · 3300–1880 BCE
    Languages & scripts Middle East 3300–1880 BCE
  2. 2
    Does the Indus script encode language, or a non-linguistic sign system?

    Whether the short Harappan inscriptions record speech at all has been argued with entropy statistics for two decades; no test yet separates writing from emblem systems decisively.

    Languages & scripts · South Asia · 2600–1900 BCE
    Languages & scripts South Asia 2600–1900 BCE
  3. 3
    Where was the land of Punt?

    Egypt traded by sea with Punt for over a thousand years, for incense, ebony, gold and baboons, but whether it lay in Africa, Arabia or both remains disputed.

    Places · Africa · 2500–1150 BCE
    Places Africa 2500–1150 BCE
  4. 4
    Where was Agade, the capital of the Sargonic empire?

    The city from which Sargon and his successors ruled Mesopotamia c. 2300 BCE has never been securely located, despite more than a century of searching in central Iraq.

    Places · Middle East · 2350–539 BCE
    Places Middle East 2350–539 BCE
  5. 5
    What is the absolute chronology of early second-millennium BCE Mesopotamia?

    Competing High, Middle, Low and Ultra-Low chronologies place Hammurabi and the fall of Babylon up to about 150 years apart; no single model integrates all the evidence.

    Chronology · Middle East · 2000–1500 BCE
    Chronology Middle East 2000–1500 BCE
  6. 6
    What language does Linear A record, and can any proposed family beat chance?

    Minoan Linear A can be roughly sounded out through Linear B values, but no proposed language family has been shown to fit better than random controls.

    Languages & scripts · Mediterranean · 1800–1450 BCE
    Languages & scripts Mediterranean 1800–1450 BCE
  7. 7
    What do the thousands of unread Shang oracle-bone graphs mean?

    Of roughly 4,000 to 4,500 distinct graphs in the Shang divination inscriptions, only about 1,100 to 1,700 are generally accepted as read; most of the rest are rare and unread.

    Languages & scripts · East Asia · 1250–1046 BCE
    Languages & scripts East Asia 1250–1046 BCE
  8. 8
    In what year did the Zhou conquer the Shang?

    More than forty proposed dates for King Wu's victory over the last Shang king span over a century, and the official choice of 1046 BCE remains disputed.

    Chronology · East Asia · 1130–1018 BCE
    Chronology East Asia 1130–1018 BCE
  9. 9
    Can the Meroitic language be translated beyond its funerary formulae?

    Meroitic script has been readable since Griffith's work of 1909–1911, but outside formulaic texts the language of the Kingdom of Kush is still largely untranslated.

    Languages & scripts · Africa · 300 BCE–450 CE
    Languages & scripts Africa 300 BCE–450 CE
  10. 10
    Did Ptolemy observe the Almagest star catalogue or adapt Hipparchus's?

    Ptolemy's catalogue of about 1,025 stars claims his own observations; statistical anomalies suggest much of it derives from Hipparchus three centuries earlier.

    Science & knowledge · Mediterranean · 135 BCE–160 CE
    Science & knowledge Mediterranean 135 BCE–160 CE
  11. 11
    How large was the Roman citizen population in the late Republic and under Augustus?

    Roman census totals jump from about 910,000 in 70/69 BCE to 4,063,000 in 28 BCE; whether this reflects a change in who was counted or real growth remains disputed.

    Demography · Mediterranean · 115 BCE–14 CE
    Demography Mediterranean 115 BCE–14 CE
  12. 12
    Which lost works of Galen survive unrecognised in Arabic and Syriac?

    Many Galenic works lost in Greek were translated into Syriac and Arabic in ninth-century Baghdad; some may survive in unedited manuscripts or in quotations not yet traced to their source.

    Texts & authorship · Middle East · 160–1270
    Texts & authorship Middle East 160–1270
  13. 13
    Where was Yamatai, the realm of Queen Himiko?

    A third-century Chinese account describes the Wa polity ruled by Himiko, but its itinerary cannot be followed literally and the Kyushu and Nara candidates have been argued since the Edo period.

    Places · East Asia · 180–280
    Places East Asia 180–280
  14. 14
    How many people did the Justinianic Plague kill, and did it change late antique society?

    Ancient DNA confirms Yersinia pestis caused the First Pandemic (541–c.750), but estimates of its mortality and long-term consequences range from catastrophic to modest.

    Disease · Mediterranean · 541–750
    Disease Mediterranean 541–750
  15. 15
    When was the consonantal text of the Qurʾān standardized?

    Islamic tradition credits the caliph ʿUthmān (c. 650); some scholars place closure under ʿAbd al-Malik and al-Ḥajjāj (c. 700) or later. Manuscript evidence is now testing these positions.

    Texts & authorship · Middle East · 632–750
    Texts & authorship Middle East 632–750
  16. 16
    When was Beowulf composed?

    Proposed dates for the poem range from about 700 to the early eleventh century, the date of its only manuscript, and rest on metre, language, palaeography and historical context.

    Chronology · Europe · 680–1020
    Chronology Europe 680–1020
  17. 17
    Did Gregorian chant descend from Old Roman chant, or did both come from a common ancestor?

    Frankish 'Gregorian' and city-of-Rome 'Old Roman' chant share texts and melodic outlines but differ in detail, and Roman melodies were written down only from 1071.

    Texts & authorship · Europe · 680–1250
    Texts & authorship Europe 680–1250
  18. 18
    How much iron did Song China produce in the eleventh century?

    Robert Hartwell's estimate of about 125,000 tons of iron in 1078 is widely repeated, but it rests on fiscal records whose relation to total output is disputed.

    Economy · East Asia · 960–1127
    Economy East Asia 960–1127
  19. 19
    By what route did knowledge of gunpowder reach Latin Europe in the thirteenth century?

    Gunpowder formulas appear in China by 1044 and in Arabic and Latin texts by the later 1200s, but the path between them is unattested.

    Science & knowledge · Global · 1040–1350
    Science & knowledge Global 1040–1350
  20. 20
    Which volcanoes caused the great unattributed sulfate spikes in polar ice, above all 1809?

    Several of the largest volcanic sulfate deposits of the last millennium, in 1230, 1286, 1458, 1695 and 1809, have no securely identified source volcano.

    Places · Global · 1229–1810
    Places Global 1229–1810
  21. 21
    How, if at all, did Copernicus learn of the Maragha-school planetary models?

    Copernicus used devices found earlier in al-Ṭūsī and Ibn al-Shāṭir, but no document shows how a text containing them reached him or his teachers.

    Science & knowledge · Europe · 1250–1543
    Science & knowledge Europe 1250–1543
  22. 22
    Which of the journeys in Ibn Baṭṭūṭa's Riḥla did he actually make?

    The account of thirty years' travel dictated to Ibn Juzayy in 1354–55 mixes eyewitness report with borrowed passages, and several legs, from the Volga to China, remain doubted.

    Texts & authorship · Global · 1325–1355
    Texts & authorship Global 1325–1355
  23. 23
    Did the Black Death reach sub-Saharan Africa in the fourteenth century?

    Plague devastated Egypt and North Africa in 1347–49, but whether it crossed the Sahara or reached the Horn and East Africa is unresolved.

    Disease · Africa · 1340–1500
    Disease Africa 1340–1500
  24. 24
    Did Kerala-school infinite series reach early modern Europe through Jesuit missionaries?

    Madhava's school derived power series for π, sine and cosine before 1500; whether Jesuits in Kerala carried them to Europe remains undocumented.

    Science & knowledge · South Asia · 1350–1700
    Science & knowledge South Asia 1350–1700
  25. 25
    Did anyone write down the Aceh tsunamis of c. 1394 and c. 1450?

    Geology and archaeology show two great tsunamis struck northern Sumatra around 1394 and 1450, but no contemporary text describing either has been identified.

    Chronology · Indian Ocean · 1390–1460
    Chronology Indian Ocean 1390–1460
  26. 26
    Do khipus record more than numbers, and can their non-numerical signs be read?

    Andean knotted cords encode numbers in a known decimal system; whether colour, ply, attachment and knot direction also record names, categories or narrative remains open.

    Languages & scripts · Americas · 1400–1800
    Languages & scripts Americas 1400–1800
  27. 27
    Was rongorongo an independent invention of writing?

    The undeciphered glyphs carved on about two dozen wooden objects from Rapa Nui may be a pre-contact invention of writing or a nineteenth-century response to European literacy.

    Languages & scripts · Pacific · 1400–1870
    Languages & scripts Pacific 1400–1870
  28. 28
    How did Gutenberg cast his type?

    Glyph-level variation in the earliest Mainz types has been read both as evidence against the punch, matrix and hand mould, and as fully compatible with it.

    Material & visual · Europe · 1450–1470
    Material & visual Europe 1450–1470
  29. 29
    How many early printed editions have been lost without trace?

    Estimates of the share of fifteenth- and sixteenth-century editions that survive in no copy vary widely, and depend on statistical models that have rarely been tested against later discoveries.

    Texts & authorship · Europe · 1450–1600
    Texts & authorship Europe 1450–1600
  30. 30
    How many people lived in the Americas in 1492?

    Estimates of the hemisphere's population on the eve of contact run from about 8 million to over 100 million, and the scale of the collapse depends on which is right.

    Demography · Americas · 1492–1650
    Demography Americas 1492–1650
  31. 31
    How many Indigenous people were enslaved in the Americas between 1492 and 1900?

    The best current estimate, 2.5 to 5 million enslaved Indigenous people, is the only hemispheric figure, and it rests on regional extrapolation rather than a count.

    Demography · Americas · 1492–1900
    Demography Americas 1492–1900
  32. 32
    What new evidence can fix when and why five historically extinct species disappeared?

    The dates, ranges and causes of extinction of the dodo, great auk, Steller's sea cow, passenger pigeon and Carolina parakeet still rest on thin, contested written records.

    Chronology · Global · 1500–1945
    Chronology Global 1500–1945
  33. 33
    Were real wages in the Yangzi delta and Bengal comparable to England's before 1750?

    Whether the richest regions of China and India matched England before 1750 depends on wage series built from a few scattered price and wage quotations.

    Economy · Global · 1500–1850
    Economy Global 1500–1850
  34. 34
    How many people were carried in the Indian Ocean slave trades, 1500–1850?

    European slave trading in the Indian Ocean has been tentatively counted, but the combined volume of Dutch, Portuguese, French, British, Arab, Swahili and South Asian trades remains unknown.

    Economy · Indian Ocean · 1500–1850
    Economy Indian Ocean 1500–1850
  35. 35
    Did the population of Ottoman Anatolia collapse in the late sixteenth and seventeenth centuries?

    Tax surveys show rapid growth in Anatolia to about 1580, but whether the decline that followed was a demographic collapse or an artefact of changing registration remains unsettled.

    Demography · Middle East · 1520–1700
    Demography Middle East 1520–1700
  36. 36
    What caused the cocoliztli epidemics of 1545 and 1576 in New Spain?

    Two epidemics that Nahua and Spanish observers called cocoliztli killed a large share of central Mexico's Indigenous population, and their cause, whether a native haemorrhagic fever, enteric fever or something else, is disputed.

    Disease · Americas · 1545–1581
    Disease Americas 1545–1581
  37. 37
    How much American silver reached China between 1550 and 1800?

    Estimates of the share of Spanish American silver that ended up in China vary widely because mint, shipping and Chinese monetary records have never been reconciled in one account.

    Economy · Global · 1550–1800
    Economy Global 1550–1800
  38. 38
    How many people lived in China around 1600, and how many died between 1620 and 1680?

    Late Ming population estimates run from about 150 million to over 200 million, so the scale of the mid-seventeenth-century collapse remains uncertain by tens of millions.

    Demography · East Asia · 1580–1680
    Demography East Asia 1580–1680
  39. 39
    How many people were killed in the Irish rising of 1641?

    Contemporary claims of 154,000 to 300,000 Protestant victims are rejected, but the modern figure of roughly 4,000 killed has never been built from a full victim-level count.

    Demography · Europe · 1641–1642
    Demography Europe 1641–1642
  40. 40
    How literate was the population of late imperial China?

    Rawski's 1979 estimate of 30–45 percent male literacy in Qing China has never been tested against a systematic count of signatures and marks on contracts.

    Texts & authorship · East Asia · 1644–1911
    Texts & authorship East Asia 1644–1911
  41. 41
    Why did plague disappear from western Europe after the early eighteenth century?

    After nearly four centuries of recurring epidemics, plague retreated from western and central Europe between the 1660s and the 1720s while persisting in the Ottoman Mediterranean, and no explanation commands agreement.

    Disease · Europe · 1650–1850
    Disease Europe 1650–1850
  42. 42
    Did Vermeer use a camera obscura or other optical aids?

    Optical effects, perspective geometry and technical imaging have been read for and against Vermeer's use of a camera obscura, with no documentary evidence either way.

    Material & visual · Europe · 1655–1675
    Material & visual Europe 1655–1675
  43. 43
    What texts did Newton copy in the alchemical manuscripts whose sources are unidentified?

    Most of Newton's million words on alchemy copy or digest named authors, but several recipe collections and a dialogue among his papers derive from exemplars no one has identified.

    Texts & authorship · Europe · 1660–1700
    Texts & authorship Europe 1660–1700
  44. 44
    Who supplied the medical knowledge that Hans Sloane's catalogues attribute to unnamed people?

    Sloane's catalogues attribute remedies and drug samples to 'a Negro', 'an Indian druggist' or an unnamed ship's doctor; few of these informants have been traced to named people.

    Science & knowledge · Global · 1680–1753
    Science & knowledge Global 1680–1753
  45. 45
    Who printed the anonymous and false-imprint books of eighteenth-century Britain?

    Many thousands of British books and pamphlets of 1695 to 1800 name no printer or a fictitious one; ornaments and damaged type can now identify the presses at scale.

    Texts & authorship · Europe · 1695–1800
    Texts & authorship Europe 1695–1800
  46. 46
    What do James Wilkinson's unread coded dispatches to Spanish officials say?

    Letters between the US Army's senior general and Spanish Louisiana, written in a code keyed to an unidentified printed dictionary, remain partly or wholly unread.

    Texts & authorship · Americas · 1787–1807
    Texts & authorship Americas 1787–1807
  47. 47
    Were Mendel's pea-hybrid data too close to expectation, and if so, why?

    Fisher showed in 1936 that Mendel's ratios fit theory improbably well; a century of explanations has not produced documentary evidence of how the counts were made.

    Science & knowledge · Europe · 1856–1866
    Science & knowledge Europe 1856–1866
  48. 48
    Were Moses Shapira's Deuteronomy fragments an ancient text or an 1880s forgery?

    Leather strips offered to Berlin and the British Museum in 1883 were dismissed as forgeries and then lost; since 2021 scholars have again argued they preserved a pre-biblical text.

    Texts & authorship · Middle East · 1878–1885
    Texts & authorship Middle East 1878–1885
  49. 49
    When did the thylacine go extinct in the wild?

    The last known thylacine died in a Hobart zoo in September 1936, but whether the species survived in the Tasmanian bush into the 1940s, the 1980s or later remains disputed.

    Chronology · Pacific · 1888–2019
    Chronology Pacific 1888–2019